Why weather forecasts fail beyond two weeks, why climate projections don't — and what deterministic chaos teaches us about the limits of prediction in the atmosphere and ocean. Notes, schedule, and interactive notebooks for the course.
An interactive walkthrough of the Lorenz (1963) system: the strange attractor, sensitive dependence on initial conditions (the butterfly effect), the Lyapunov exponent, and why ensemble forecasting is the correct operational response. Connects the toy model's numbers to real atmospheric predictability limits and distinguishes predictability of the first kind (weather) from the second kind (climate).